11 unit night last night… Here are some thoughts from Dan, and some free afternoon plays

Phenomenal night last night as we cruised to the tune of 11 units. Shoutout to the folks on the list that have been making A/R moves on the multiunit plays. We’ve been hitting them to a crazy advantage lately, and if we continue to do so, they actually do make sense to make if you can tolerate the risk. We’ve hit multis at close to a 70% clip in NCAAB this year. That’s unheard of. Of course, we’ve also hit all plays to the tune of about 58%. At this point, I firmly believe we are the best NCAAB cappers out there right now. We have returned 74.85 units of profit on 593.13 units risked in NCAAB over exactly 500 plays. Our NCAAB record is 283-206-11, good for a 12.62% ROI. If you have been following our recommended bankroll management strategy, you have returned over 180% on your starting capital in NCAAB if you have been following us all season.

Back to the A/R stuff though. Let’s say we can hit multis at an average of 60% going forward. A rounded 2-leg A/R EV table under that assumption whilst playing $100 base would look like this:

Payout Probability EV
Win 2 $ 400.00 36% $ 144.00
Win 1 $(120.00) 48% $ (57.60)
Lose 2 $(220.00) 16% $ (35.20)

Tot: 100% $ 51.20

Under the same assumptions, two straight plays look like this:

Payout Probability EV
Win 2 $ 200.00 36% $ 72.00
Win 1 $ (10.00) 48% $ (4.80)
Lose 2 $(220.00) 16% $ (35.20)

Tot: 100% $ 32.00

At these hit rates, throwing a small A/R out there on the multi-unit plays is actually not a bad idea… it’s a good one. I know a few people on this chain enjoy doing it, and I’ve spoken out against it in the past. But if you can tolerate the additional risk on a given night and play them conservatively, by all means go for it.

FYI, a parlay table under the same assumptions looks like this:

Payout Probability EV
Win 2 $ 264.50 36% $ 95.22
Win 1 $(100.00) 48% $ (48.00)
Lose 2 $(100.00) 16% $ (16.00)

Tot: 100% $ 31.22

In other words, it is indeed NEVER beneficial to bet a parlay. I used a goalseek function to figure out at what percentage hit rate a parlay and 2 straight bets have an equal EV, and it turns out to be 63%. I know I’ve explained the 60% fallacy to you all in the past. NEVER play parlays. Additionally, the more teams you add to the parlay, the worse the odds become. Just don’t do it. I know a longtime bookie who bought a half million dollar Cape house a few years ago that he refers to as the “Parlay House.” I think that’s all anyone really needs to know about parlays.

Anyway, we at OHCSI love keeping our subscribers informed with this sort of beneficial information, and we hope that you enjoy it. We’ve always said that a subscription to our picks includes informative emails to make you better bettors as well. But I know that what you all most care about is the picks, so here they are.

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