Methods & Philosophy

I’ve never liked the term “gamble,” and I’ve never enjoyed being called a “gambler.” First and foremost, I don’t believe either of those terms applies to what I do. By nature, gambling implies that the largest element at play is chance. Flipping a coin is chance. Throwing darts at an odds board is chance. Picking games when you think you know something ahead of Vegas isn’t even chance, it’s suicide.

That last statement is one that describes most sports bettors pretty well. Hell, a few people in our team were those guys. I don’t hesitate one bit to say that some of us would have been better off throwing darts at the board for our picks, hitting 50/50, and sacrificing our juice for the rush of the action. Accepting the fact that we were DOA would’ve made sports betting a lot less painful. On the other hand, we knew that because of the variables at play in oddsmaking there were certainly inefficiencies that we could exploit.

In order to be a profitable sports bettor, you must hit over 52.38% of your picks assuming that every pick is made at -110. It is not simply enough to be an advantage player, you have to have upwards of that 4.76% spread over the house. The goal of an oddsmaker is to create a spread that achieves 50% of the action on each side, pocket the 10% vig risk-free, and call it a day. Of course through books that release their action percentages, we know that this is sometimes not the case.

However, we also know that the percentages that books release are percentages of bets placed, and have nothing to do with actual money on each side. We also know that there exist a subset of bettors called “sharps,” who are often big money players that take unpopular sides and even the money take for the books so that they pocket their vig despite 70% of the quantity of bets coming in on one side. Of course there are some cases where the money action just clearly isn’t even, and the books are clearly taking a side with an advantage. To think that you know more than the books, in most cases, is again suicide.

Fading the public in and of itself is not always profitable however, as it is often not enough to overcome that vig spread which pays the bills for the books. No need to fret though, because there are also classic indications in addition to public bet percentage of when the books have mispriced a games. Based on historical data and technical analysis of the trend lines, we’ve developed propriety statistical models on how to exploit these plentiful opportunities. If the public continues to bet in the same manner, the books will continue to make money off the methods they use to set lines. Through our models, we’ve identified these methods and are able to side with the books on these games.

Sometimes, the books do not intentionally misprice games. Our team has developed numerous models that identify unintentional historic mispricing trends, in addition to the intentional ones. Add it all together, and we have over a half dozen formulas for spread, moneyline, and total plays for each major sport—NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, MLB, and NHL. Of course, some sports and bets are more inefficient than others, and some sports have more games than others.

When subscribing to our service, you will get a host of picks each day, sometimes twenty or more. The idea is that our algorithms mark these plays at advantage plays above our required weighted ROI of 7%, so the more of them you play, the more you will revert towards this 7% ROI. If you play fewer of them, your expected return will remain 7%, but there is increased variance around this figure. You can rest assured that we ourselves are playing EVERY SINGLE PLAY we put out, and for big money. Sometimes we will release multiple unit plays, most often 2 units, but sometimes 3, under the assumption that these plays are 10%+ expected ROI long term. Of course, with so many plays, bankroll management is of the utmost importance to succeeding under our system.

We recommend playing 1 to 2.5% of your overall bankroll on each play. That means if you plan on playing $50 units, you should have $2,500 to $5,000 in your bankroll to withstand variance. Bankroll management is a major point where bettors often lose focus and dig their own graves.

For example, let’s look at Conservative Chris and Variable Victor. Conservative Chris is a bettor who prefers to stick to $50 units, while Variable Victor starts at $200 and varies his bets after winning and losing streaks. Both have bankrolls of $2,000. Both Chris and Victor start out 6-0. After vig, Chris is up $270 and Victor is up $1,080. Victor is raking it in and thinks he can’t be beat, so he doubles his unit to $400. Chris remains at $50. Over the next 6 plays, Victor goes 1-5 while Chris goes 0-6. Now Victor has hit 58.3%, but sits -$560 in the hole to show for it—he’s lost over half his bankroll despite playing to a massive advantage. On the flipside, Chris has only hit 50%, but is only down $30… he has plenty more to play with and will turn a profit once he reverts to his average. If Victor reverts to smaller units, it will take him a while to climb out of his hole. If he reverts back to his original unit, he only has to lose the next two plays before virtually assuring that he goes bust. For these reasons, we cannot stress proper bankroll management enough.

Also keep in mind that any tout claiming that he’s tied in with Vegas, knows all the plays, and hits at 60%+ is full of shit. While it’s certainly possible, and fairly common to hit at 60% (or 40%) in a limited sample, virtually all “gamblers” will revert towards 48-52% long term. Professional bettor Steve Fezzik, two time winner of the LVH Supercontest, describes the 60% fallacy quite well, so I’ll use his example: “If you begin with a $1,000 bankroll and wager 10% of your money on one game a day, while laying -110 odds, while maintaining a 60% winning ratio, after 2,000 wagers your initial $1,000 would be a cool $550 billion. Yes, billion. Something to remember the next time you see a sports tout claiming to hit 65% over the last 10 years.”

Our philosophy to sports INVESTING was honed from years of economic and financial experience in our previous careers, combined with a thirst and belief to apply our knowledge to what we are passionate about—sports. Of course, the second we realized that our models were sound and highly profitable, we put our money where our mouth is and started Oak Hill Capital—a fund dedicated to what essentially boils down to picking sports instead of stocks. This is now our full time job and we are happy to let you in on the action. We know that you already enjoy sports and sports betting as much as we do by the mere fact that you’re on this page. Now it’s time for you to get in on the money that sports betting can offer.


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