Implications of the Typical Bettor’s Mentality

Hey there followers, Dan here. It’s usually Jordan, our Marketing Director who mans this blog, but I figured I’d drop in with some words now that we’re about to have a month of activity on the website. It’s been an eventful month and we’re closing in on the 40 units of profit mark. I couldn’t be more pleased with the work everyone is doing. It’s a labor of love, and that’s a sentiment that everyone on our team shares. That’s one aspect of what makes this endeavor so rewarding.

Another aspect is the mere fact that upon 464 plays and 544 units risked, we’ve exhibited a demonstrable edge over the house. That’s no easy task in sports betting, where by the virtue of standard -110 vig, or “juice,” as we call it, the house has a 4.76%+ built in edge. Additionally, with only a few “trials” each night, sports betting can be highly variable. Rightfully, we’re taking great pride in this accomplishment. I come from the world of Blackjack where under commonly found conditions the house edge is reduced to somewhere between half a percent and a percent if you follow basic strategy. By learning to card count, my team was able to put the odds in our favor… but only by the few decimal points that it allows. However, with many trials (consider each hand a trial) over many sleepless nights over many years, we were able to beat this tiny advantage into a nice little pile of cash.

I bring up this juxtaposition of sports handicapping and card counting because card counting is easy. The common house edge is small and reliably overcome over the long term with counting and proper play. The math has already been done for you. Between basic strategy, index plays, and count to bet correlations, heck, all you gotta be able to do is memorize a few tables and learn to add and subtract 1 somewhat quickly. It’s a total misconception that you need to be smart to card count. You just need to care and put in maybe 20 to 40 or so hours of dedicated practice. The casinos keep the lights on by virtue of folks who don’t care, which unfortunately are far too many out there. It’s pretty pathetic, but thank them for keeping the house in business for us!

Sports betting is a different animal entirely. With approximately a 10 times larger house edge than Blackjack, you must hit over 52.38% of bets to be profitable. Add in the immense variability as a result of the human element present in sports, and this becomes a difficult proposition. One thing that I was lucky enough to have learned quite young however, is that there is a great difference between knowing sports and knowing how to bet sports. Most bettors understand that lines are not necessarily set to an expected score difference between teams, but to the number that will lend Vegas equal action on both sides of the game. That’s a fundamental point here. The books would prefer not to have exposure, but rather to entice a shitload of action, pocket their juice, and call it a day. There are many implications of this goal that lead to line mispricings, and I will cover this idea in a subsequent post.

Back to “The Bettor,” though, because first we must understand “The Bettor” before we progress to how we derive an advantage. Understanding the inputs is crucial to producing reliable outputs. Ever wonder how Roulette, Craps, Slots, Pai Gow Motherfuckin’ Tiles, and Baccarat all get plenty of action in the casino in spite of the fact that there are readily available Blackjack tables in which the house edge is much lower and potentially overcome? People are fickle, and they have an incredible innate inability to reconcile randomness and overcome noise. Take religion for example. There are countless religions in the world, all of which are postulating that they are true while others are false. If the vast majority of faiths are false (potentially all if atheism is to be true), it’s probably pretty important to analyze what they have in common to see where humans engineered fallacy. Well what all these religions have inc common is the fact that they lend a sense of meaning or purpose to what could very well be our completely improbable, random existence in the universe. Regardless of what may be true or false, this feeling of meaning or purpose is a feeling that people quite clearly so desperately seek. I mean, why else would there be so many goddamn religions in the world for us to ultimately senselessly kill each other over?

So what does this have to do with betting? The “illusion of skill” is actually one of the top gaming concepts used to get people addicted to losing propositions. The illusion of skill lends an illusion of self purpose and meaning to the bettor, when in actuality the game is all engineered very well beyond one’s control and entirely randomly variable around an ultimately losing proposition. Take Martingale betting systems for example (or casual sports betting LOL). These are the moronic systems that tell you to double your bet after a loss so that you end up pocketing a unit after you finally win. Let’s say you’re playing $25 blackjack. After 9 losses, you’re down $6375, and you’re tied into betting $6400. First of all, the table max could very well be $5000 and you’d be fucked to shit by that point. Secondly, say you lose that one– you’re going to have to take out an equity line of credit on your house for the next one. Enjoy that.

Martingale-like theories are the very essence of what spawns gambling problems. You can indeed lose 9 hands in a row. You can lose 9 trials of anything in a row. And you may not be any likelier to win the next hand. This is no different than betting red after nine blacks in Roulette, except for the fact that Roulette is completely, unalterably random, and in blackjack there is information (previous cards) that you have at your disposal to make a better choice. Most people just don’t. Stop making bad decisions and tossing your money into a Native American buzzsaw taxed up the ass by the US Government. Rule #1 is that you’re only allowed to play at the casino if you lose… that’s why they’ll kick out any card counter the second they realize that they no longer have the advantage over that player. It’s fucked to shit and we the people do not deserve this treatment (but that’s another concept I’ll be saving a subsequent post). And please, stop considering playing to lose “paying for your entertainment.” That’s just a pathetic excuse to toss away your hard earned cash and feel better about it at the end of the day. Stop fooling yourself. It’s a disservice and embarrassment to yourself alone.

Even those who don’t count cards understand the basic principle that high cards benefit the player and low cards benefit the dealer. What if during those 9 losing hands, many more face cards actually came out than low cards, and you were just the tortured soul who didn’t get any of them? That would mean that the deck composition actually got increasingly unfavorable as the shoe progressed, and you bet into it like a sucker because of recall bias relative to your own personal hands. Now, the chances are quite small of getting to 9 or 10 consecutive losing hands and getting tapped out, but they certainly exist. You may have won hand 4 or 6 this time. But eventually you’ll get the hand that exceeds the table limit, or worse yet, your bankroll. There’s no magic cutoff whereby you are guaranteed to win the next one. You’ll take it up the ass eventually if you keep playing this way. Don’t be that sucker. That sucker is a Fucked Frank. That sucker, betting more and more into an increasingly unfavorable situation… is absolutely doomed.

We on the other hand are Systematic Steve. We are Conservative Chris. We look for an advantage opportunity and we exploit it. We remain patient, abstinent and analytical until such opportunity presents itself, then and only then do we put our hard earned money out on the table. Due to the market nature of sports betting and how most market participants are Variable Victor or Fucked Frank suckers, these opportunities present themselves ALL THE TIME on the odds board. We cannot play blackjack for you (heck, in some casinos we can’t even play blackjack for ourselves anymore), but we CAN give you the information to make more educated, informed, advantage sports plays. Best of all, given the nature of the betting markets, we are often betting on low action sides and evening out the book’s money take. They actually WELCOME our action despite our advantage in certain instances, unlike in blackjack.

It’s time for you to capitalize on the opportunity we’ve demonstrated by providing our clients with a 6% return over the past month with 544 units risked on 464 advantage plays. If you’re playing $50 units, that’s nearly $1,700 bucks in your pocket in just four weeks. For comparison’s sake, you’d have an expected loss of over $1,430 dollars risking that many units in Roulette. That’s a fucking track record and a half we’ve got right there, and better yet, there’s absolutely no work involved for you. Sign up for our packages today and start playing the Oak Hill Capital Sports INVESTMENT way. You’ll be glad you did, and you’ll learn a hell of a lot from our newsletters about how to get ahead financially in any market. It’s time for you to stop giving those rat bastards your hard earned cash. Prove to yourself that you can hold the advantage too. You deserve it.

–Dan

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